A
Statewide Database in GIS for Planning California’s Infrastructure for
the 21st Century
Bob Johnston,
Center for Urban Behavior and the Environment June,
2000
Concept: A
desktop GIS available to all State employees that forecasts population and
employment to 2040 by census tract. It also shows infrastructure supply
and capacity left, for each future year (roads, water, schools, etc.). What’s
Different About Our Approach?: Instead
of just forecasting population with statistical models, based on census
tract data for 1970-1990, we forecast land uses and then derive the
demographics from them. This
permits cities and counties to view the maps and comment on them. Citizens
can also visualize the future growth patterns. Why
GIS?: Gets
all assumptions re. demand and re. infrastructure supply onto one map.
Framework for expertise. Shows relative levels of service, impacts, etc. Infrastructure
Problems: A. Social
1. Underprovision of education, medical, and transit services to lower-income HHs in central cities and older suburbs. 2.
Overconsumption of land and auto travel by upper-income HHs in outer
suburbs and exurbs, due to subsidies. B. Environmental
1.
Greenhouse gases and global climate change. 2.
Loss of habitats and biodiversity. C. Economic
1.
Efficiency loss through Legislative logrolling (geographic equity). 2.
Efficiency loss through underinvestment in some infrastructure. 3.
Efficiency loss through underpricing roads and water. Recent
Recommendations: 1.
Gov. Wilson's Growth Mgmt. Task Force, 1992. Infrastructure Bank
should invest only in regions with coordinated land use and
transport planning. 2.
Leg. Analyst, 1998. Roads contribute to sprawl and can be inefficient. May
not want to expand them in some areas.
Need "integrated statewide infrastructure plan. " 3.
Treasurer Angelides, 1999. Infrastructure Bank should invest in poor
communities. 4.
Commission on Infrastructure, 1999. Need "uniform process for
evaluation of transportation projects" and a "state
infrastructure plan. So... .lots of ideas for criteria
for investment. Need statewide datasets with maps, to permit all of these
concepts to be carried out. Resources
at UC: 1. GIS layers and expertise, in general: ICE. 2.
Urban growth model: CUBE. 3.
Road supply: Caltrans ITMS and Rapid Assessment GIS tools. CUBE has. 4.
Water supply: CALVIN model. Depts of Civil Eng. and Ag. Econ. 5.
Water quality: ICE. 6.
Habitat quality: ICE. 7.
Housing quality, affordability: CUBE has census data in GIS. Advantages
of the Urban Growth Method: 1.
Urban growth model permits the evaluation of the land development effects
of new roads. 2.
Integrates all infrastructure into one database, to coordinate spending. 3.
Uses software most State agencies already use (ArcView). 4. Permits experts at UCD and elsewhere to apply their expertise to each type of investment issue, but in a standard format. Track
Record for Using GIS: The
power of GIS in the analysis of infrastructure equity is shown by Myron
Orfield’s book, Metropolitics. These studies are being done all
over the U.S. now. Example
Problems for California Where GIS Can Help: 1.
School funding equity (Serrano decisions). Show spending per
pupil, property assessed value per student, etc. by school district. 2.
Affordable housing. Show jobs/housing balance by city and county
subareas. Show general plan designations for apartments and mobile homes.
Show housing affordability measures. 3.
Airport expansions v. High speed rail. About $20 b. will likely be
spent soon expanding several airports, to handle intrastate travel.
High speed rail is the alternative. 4.
Foothill Freeway on the east side of the N. San Joaquin Valley.
Will pull urban growth off of prime ag lands and onto vernal pool habitats
and into the Sierra foothills. 5. Water supply. Huge population growth projected for Southern California. What will the demands for water be? Where will the water come from? |
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