Urban Models in California

rajohnston@ucdavis.edu

 A.      In Regional Use:

1. Travel models. All Metropolitan Planning Organizations. Land use is fixed. On-road emissions. Energy use. It is possible to evaluate economic benefits for travelers by income, but is rarely done. 

2. Statistical Land use models. SANDAG has a land use model and uses it. ABAG/MTC have a land use model, but don't use it. SACOG is developing one. SCAG had one and rejected it. Changes in population and employment, due to new freeways or rail lines. Not land prices and rents. With GIS interface, can show habitat and open space preserves. Could model impacts of urban growth with the GIS.  

3. Input-Output models. SCAQMD uses a dynamic I-O model for evaluating the effects of  AQ regulations on small and minority businesses. Wages, shipping costs, commuting costs crudely, all by sector. Could do land prices and rents. Moderate in cost. IMPLAN, a lower-cost model that is easier to use, is used by DWR to project the economic effects of water projects.

 B.      In Academic Use:

1.              GIS urban growth models. UC Davis. Sacramento region pilot project. Land use patterns resulting from changes in local general plans; new freeways, roads, and rail lines; and assumptions about land use density, vacancy rate, and environmental constraints. Map of urban/suburban/rural development footprint. Inexpensive to apply. CUF model at UC Berkeley similar.  

2.              Urban impact models. In GIS. UC Davis. Sacramento pilot project. Costs from flooding and local service costs are done. Working on costs from wildfires, threats to groundwater, and habitat damage. Inexpensive to apply 

3.              3. Statistical land use models. UC Berkeley. CUF-II tested on the S.F. Bay Region. Dram/Empal being evaluated by SACOG. Changes in population and employees, due to new roads, general plan policies, and demographic assumptions. Medium cost. 

4.               Urban spatial economic models. UC Davis. Two models applied to the Sacramento region. Land markets represented. Can evaluate changes in local land use plans, new roads and rail lines, and in land taxes. Can project: population, employment,   wages, land prices, rents, travel costs, and net economic benefits. Has Input-Output model and travel model inside. Interfaced with GIS and so can evaluate   open space plans and can represent results with maps. Can also run urban impact   models (B.2., above). Expensive to apply. Spatial model being applied to Oregon.  

C.      Implementation Needs: 

1.              State dissemination. Need one or two State agencies to support and disseminate at least one urban growth model and a suite of urban impact models.  

2.              State encouragement. Need CEQA Guidelines to refer to the models as useful in assessing the cumulative impacts of urban growth. Need State manuals and demonstrations, to encourage use by local governments. Mailings. Workshops.