ESP 165, Fall 2022, Schedule of lectures and assigned readings

Date Topic/slides Readings             

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9/22


1. Introduction
Slides
   



9/27
2. Evidence and impacts
Slides

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2021. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32.
  1. What are: the IPCC, AR6, AR5, and the SPM?  Go beyond just spelling out the acronym—explain each of these in a sentence or two.
  2. What is the central estimate of the increase total human-caused global surface temperature to date, i.e., from the pre-industrial era (1850-1900) to the most recent decade (2010-2019)?  In addition, what is the “likely range” of this estimate and what exactly does “likely” mean here? (Hint: see footnote 4).
  3. What does Figure SPM.1 show about the capacity of models with natural forces only (excluding human factors) to explain observed warming (global surface temperature) as observed over the last 50 years?
  4. What are the relative contributions to warming of the two groups of human influence: GHGs versus other human drivers? What role in warming has been played by natural factors like solar, volcanic and other internal variability?
  5. Find the region for Davis in Figure SPM.3 and summarize the type of observed change in each of the three weather/climate extremes.

***NOTE:  Starting with this class you will be asked to self-assess your level of preparation and contribution to small group discussions according to the table below.
Level Description
5 I read the reading(s) carefully, I have a copy with me that I marked up with my notes, I have an initial idea of how to respond to the questions posed under the reading (in the course schedule), and I contributed actively and informatively to my group's discussion.  (This might have included asking specific, informed questions about things I don't fully understand in the paper.) I was here on time at the start of group discussion.
4 I read the reading(s) and have a copy with me, I contributed actively to my group's discussion. I was here on time at the start of group discussion.
3 I scanned the reading(s) and have the basic idea, I contributed a modest amount to my group's discussion.
2 I have the reading(s) but haven't read it deeply.  I contributed a small amount to my group's discussion.  [**Or: I wasn't prepared at all but picked it up quickly and discussed critically once in discussion.]
1 I'm here, aren't I?  What more do you want from me?   


9/29
3. Evidence and impacts--Overview (cont'd) and extreme events.  
Slides



**Note: be prepared for the same type of self assessment exercise as last class

IPCC (2021) from above, continued:
  1. The future path of anthropogenic drivers of climate change (mainly net emissions of GHGs) is quite uncertain.  How does the report deal with this?  (Hint: they use SSPs.)  What are SSPs and what range is considered here?
  2. What is shape of the curve depicting how increasing levels of cumulative CO2 emissions map into an increase in global surface temperature (relative to 1850-1900)?
  3. With respect to hot temperature extremes over land, an extreme event that might happen once in 50 years in 1850-1900 is how many times more likely to occur under future global warming level of 2 degrees Celsius?

Extreme events:
Stott, P. 2016. How climate change affects extreme weather events. Science, 352(6293), 1517-1518.
  1. One example discussed was Sun et al.--did those authors find that human induced climate change caused the summer of 2013 heat wave (the hottest on record) in eastern China?
  2. Does current extreme event attribution analysis find similar evidence for the finger print of human induced climate change for all types of extreme events.  Why?/Why not?
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Not assigned (yet) but recommended podcast, and likely to appear on your first essay assignment:

Garfield, Bob. 2017. How To Answer "Is This Caused By Climate Change?", On The Media, Podcast audio, March 10, 2017, http://www.wnyc.org/story/caused_by_climate_change.

Other relevant papers:

Popovich, Nadja. 2017. "From Heat Waves to Hurricanes: What We Know About Extreme Weather and Climate Change". New York Times, September 15, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/15/climate/does-climate-change-cause-hurricanes-drought.html.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S. 2017. "How We Know It Was Climate Change." New York Times, December 29, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/29/opinion/sunday/climate-change-global-warming.html


10/4 4. Social cost of carbon
Slides
Video (45min)


Carleton, T., & Greenstone, M. (2021). Updating the United States Government's Social Cost of Carbon. University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper, (2021-04).
Focus on Sections I and II (pp. 1-27).  In Section II, for each of the Seven Key Ingredients, there are 4 elements discussed: “Background”, “2010 IWG approach”, “Progress” and “Recommendation”.  The “Progress” sections are interesting but sometimes long and technical so ok to skim these. 
  1. What is the social cost of carbon (SCC) meant to reflect/include?
  2. How is it meant to be used in policy analysis--what is the objective behind generating this estimate?
  3. Who is generating and then publishing an estimate of the SCC? 
  4. This discussion has been cut from the Nov. 2021 update to this paper: C&G specify a two-step process to “return the United States government’s Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) to the frontier of economics and climate science.”  What are these two steps?  For step I, what two key changes (relative to the Trump administration estimates) and what is the resulting SCC for 2020? 
  5. What are the “seven key ingredients” required to build the SCC?
  6. What is the argument for not just including domestic (US) but also global damages from US emissions in the SCC?
  7. Climate damages are not expected to equally impact everyone.  Who is expected be disproportionally affected?
  8. What is the "equilibrium climate sensitivity" parameter?
  9. What does “declining marginal value of consumption” mean and what are the implications for the SCC?
  10. Why does the SCC grow over time (e.g. for a unit generated in 2020 versus 2100)?
 ----------------------------------------------------
Optional/see also:
IWGSCC (Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon) 2010. Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866.  February. United States Government.

Greenstone, M., Kopits, E., & Wolverton, A. 2013. Developing a social cost of carbon for US regulatory analysis: A methodology and interpretation.  Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 7(1), 23-46.
 

Here' s a report by the IWGSCC, similar to the one that Greenstone et al. (2013) talk about, except that instead of the 2010 estimates they write about, this is the 2016 update (check out the table on page 4):   IWGSCC (2016).

Greenstone, M. and C. R. Sunstein. 2016. Donald Trump Should Know: This Is What Climate Change Costs Us.  The New York Times, Dec. 15.
This is a good short introduction to the social cost of carbon (SCC) and sets the initial political context of the Trump administration.

Mooney, Chris. 2017. “New EPA document reveals sharply lower estimate of the cost of climate change.Washington Post, October 11, 2017.
This is a useful discussion of how the of the social cost of carbon (SCC) has become a political flash point and how its treatment has changed from the Obama to the Trump administration.

10/6
5. Discounting:

General introduction - Slides, Video (38 min)


 

1. Read these 7 pages:  US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2010). Guidelines for Preparing Economic Analysis, Chapter 6: Discounting Future Benefits and Costs, EPA 240-R-10-001.  [The pdf I provided includes only the assigned pages (1:2, 7, 11-14)--the full chapter is here.]
  1. What's the difference between "intergenerational" and "intragenerational" discounting?
  2. What's the difference between a "prescriptive" and "descriptive" approach to choosing the discount rate?
2. Discounting mechanics: Handout, Video (16 min) and Whiteboard that goes with video.
  1. How do you calculate the discount weight and how does it change as the discount rate changes? 
  2. What's the difference between a "future value" and a "present value"?
3. Review this stylized example of discounting and the social cost of carbon: Video (13 min, though skip to 4:30 if you've already covered the videos linked to the left) and the Excel spreadsheet.


10/11
6. Carbon markets  
Slides
Video (23 min: first 14:30 covered today, remainder next class)



1. Krugman, P. 2010. Building a green economy. New York Times, April 11, 2010, p. MM34.  --> Here's a PDF.
Read the first half of the article (i.e., you can stop at the section "The Cost of Action".  The rest of the article is useful but parts are dated.

1.  Krugman states that "If there's a single central insight in economics, it's this: There are mutual gains from transactions between consenting adults." What does this mean and how does it relate to cap and trade?
2. What is Krugman's case for a "market-based solution" like cap and trade (or an emissions tax) over "telling people what will or will not be permitted" (command and control)?

Newell, R. G., Pizer, W. A., & Raimi, D. 2014. Carbon Markets: Past, Present, and Future. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 6:191-215. Note: focus on these sections: 1-2, 3.1.3, 3.2.1, 4.3, 4.5, Table 1, Figures 1-2.   (This is about 9 pages of reading.)
1.  What does it mean for GHGs to be a "global, uniformly mixed pollutant"?  How does this impact (1) the effectiveness of individual (versus global) action, and (2) the suitability of cap and trade as a policy instrument?
2.  
What is the definition of "cost-effectiveness" in the context of cap and trade and how does it depend on (as the authors say) "what, where and when flexibility"?

--------------------
Optional:  Here's a video on the basics of cap and trade in an international context from the Norwegian Ministry of Environment.
---------------------
Optional: EPA's cap and trade basics
 -- no longer available


10/13
7. Carbon markets: offsets
Newell et al. (2014) from above: section 4.5
1.  What's the point of building an offset scheme into a cap and trade program?
2.  What does it mean for emissions reductions to be "additional" in the context of offsets?

Schapiro, Mark. 2010. Conning the climate: Inside the carbon-trading shell game.  Harper's Magazine,
Feb. 2010, 31-39.
1. What's wrong with this claim on p. 33:  "the (offset) systems' ultimate raison d'etre (is): to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by channeling funds into cleaner technologies."
2. What seems to be the track record with respect to demonstrating additionality for offset projects under the CDM?


10/18

 
8. Morality and carbon markets: ethics of trading pollution rights
Slides

Sandel, M. J. 2012. What money can't buy: the moral limits of markets. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. (Excerpt covering tradable pollution permits and offsets, pp. 72-79).
1.
What message does Sandel believe is conveyed by using government regulation (as opposed to tradable permits) to control pollution?
2. Buying the right to pollute does damage to which two norms?
3. Does Sandel believe that the effect of market instruments (like cap and trade) on norms implies  that they are always a bad idea?


McCloskey, D. N. 2012. The Poverty of Communitarianism, Book Review of What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets, by Michael J. Sandel. Claremont Review of Books XII(4), pp. 57-59.
1.  According to McCloskey, what are Sandel's two key moral arguments?

10/20
9. California climate policy
Slides
Video (38 min) 
 

There are four short readings below--A through D--about 13 pages to read in total.

A.
CARB (California Air Resources Board). 2021. “Cap-and-Trade Program: Allowance Distribution Factsheet.” January 29, 2021. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/CT_Allowance_FactSheet_Jan2021.pdf.  
1. Governments like the state of California often specify GHG reduction goals using three numbers—what are these?
2. The GHG allowances that make up the cap from a given vintage year are split into four general groups.  What are these and what is the logic for why they are part of the approach? 

B.
CARB (California Air Resources Board). 2021. “FAQ Cap-and-Trade Program.” January, 2021.  https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/nc-FAQ_CT_Jan2021.pdf.      Start on p. 3 (“What are offsets?”).  We’ll read/return to pp. 1-2 when we talk about EJ concerns later in the quarter.
1. What happens if the quantity of allowances that companies want to obtain at auction is less than the quantity being made available?
2. What happens if the quantity of allowances that companies want to obtain is so high that it sends the allowance price very high? 

C.
CLEE (Center for Law, Energy & the Environment) (2022). “California Climate Policy Dashboard.”  Berkeley Law at the University of California, Berkeley. Accessed April 24, 2022. https://www.law.berkeley.edu/research/clee/research/climate/climate-policy-dashboard/.
1. Scan the various “California Climate Programs”. Note: the set of GHG mitigation policies besides cap and trade are sometimes referred to as “complementary measures”.
2. Scan the various “California Climate Policies”.  What policies underly California’s C&T program? Of the two main types of climate change policies, are these policies solely focused on mitigation?
3. Scan the various “California Climate Regulators”. What agency heads California’s GHG regulation?

D.
Stavins, R. (2016). State's Low Carbon Fuel Standard doesn't cut net emissions. Capitol Weekly, January 27.  Available online: http://capitolweekly.net/low-carbon-fuel-standard-emissions-cut8909-2/.

1. What's the logic behind Stavins' argument that California's so-called "complementary policies" that augment cap and trade, for example the Low Carbon Fuels Standard (LCFS), actually have a "perverse effect" and undermine California's capacity to serve as a leading example to the world?

=========================================
Optional:
A nice plain language overview and update on California's program:
Lazo, Alejandro 2014. How Cap-and-Trade Is Working in California. The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 28.  

Burtraw, D., McLaughlin, D., & Szambelan, S. J. 2012. California's New Gold: A Primer on the Use of Allowance Value Created under the CO2 Cap-and-Trade Program. Resources for the Future DP, 12-23.
1. What exactly is "allowance value"?  How is it generated?  Who pays for it?
2. Why is it the case that giving permits to industry for free (instead of auctioning) won't necessarily keep firms from raising their prices?
3. What might California drivers expect to pay extra at the pump for gasoline  when fuels are covered under the cap and trade policy?


More detail on the evolution and passage of AB 32 and other GHG laws:
Hanemann, M. 2008. "California's New Greenhouse Gas Laws." Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 2: 114-129.
 

Useful reference for all things climate policy in CA:
http://calcarbondash.org/

 



10/25

10. Carbon mitigation policies and environmental justice


Hernandez-Cortes, D. and Meng, K.C., 2022. Do environmental markets cause environmental injustice? Evidence from California’s carbon market. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w27205, revision date Feb. 2022.
This will be a challenging paper that we will read/discuss over two sessions.  For today read from the beginning through the end of page 15 and the paragraph that spills over to page 16.
1. What is “market-induced spatial reallocation of pollution” and in what ways can it be desirable and undesirable?
2. What is a criteria air pollutant (CAP)?  Is reducing CAPs part of the goal of California's greenhouse gas (GHG) market?
3. What are the summarized key findings (e.g. with respect to GHG/CAP emissions overall and to the environmental justice gap, including differences by California region)?

***Hernandez-Cortes and Meng (2022) uses regression analysis as the key statistical methodology.  You might find it helpful to work through this introduction to regression analysis (with video and interactive data) to brush up on that approach.


10/27
11. Carbon mitigation policies & environmental justice, cont'd
A.
Hernandez-Cortes and Meng (2022) continued:
Read Section 5 and 6 (pp. 18-24 and 30). Within these pages, the “Robustness checks” section of pp.19-20 can be skimmed/skipped. Don’t forget to read the Conclusion (p. 30).
  1. Given that the estimates in Table 1 for GHGs are statistically significant, what does it mean (how do we interpret) the result that estimates signs are κp1 > 0, κp2< 0; and κp1 + κp2< 0?   (And similarly for CAPs, though note that most but not all estimates for CAPs are statistically significant.)
  2. Was there an EJ gap in exposure to CAPs in 2008, specifically for facilities that would eventually be regulated by the C&T program?
  3. Given that the estimates in Table 2 for CAPs are statistically significant (mostly), what does it mean (how do we interpret) the result that estimates signs are βp1 > 0, βp2< 0; and βp1 + βp2< 0?  
  4. Were the average outcome estimates (from Tables 1 & 2) the experience of all zip codes in CA or did some experience a different direction in the size of EJ gaps (and if so which ones)? 
  5. Do the authors think market-based policies should be used to address EJ concerns?  Why/why not?
B.
CARB (California Air Resources Board). 2021. “FAQ Cap-and-Trade Program.” January, 2021.  https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/nc-FAQ_CT_Jan2021.pdf.      We read this for CA policy above but skipped pp. 1-2--please read those 2 pages now.  Note that the "2018 study from the University of California, Santa Barbara" is an earlier version of Hernandez-Cortes and Meng (2022).
What is CARB’s position on whether the Cap-and-Trade Program has made worse the air quality in disadvantaged communities?  Why is this a hard effect to identify?



Take-home midterm 
The midterm will be available on the course website soon after the lecture above and you'll have about a week to complete it. There will be 3-4 separate/independent questions with a maximum length for the whole assignment similar to your written papers.


11/1


No class--time for working on midterm


11/3

Guest speaker: Derek Nixon
Auctions and Market Unit Supervisor in the Air Quality Program for the state of Washington Department of Ecology


Derek's work involves implementing elements of the State of Washington's Climate Commitment Act, which will kick off January 1, 2023. Washington’s new "cap-and-invest program" is the second economy-wide program in the US (after CA).

***Since our guest speaker is remote, this class will meet remotely on Zoom.

11/8







13. California electric vehicle policy


Tal, G., Davis, A. and Garas, D. 2022. California's Advanced Clean Cars II: Issues and Implications. UC Davis Institute for Transportation Studies Working Paper UCD-ITS-RR-22-73, May 31. Available online: https://escholarship.org/content/qt1g05z2x3/qt1g05z2x3.pdf.
  1. Make sure you know the full name for and definition of the key jargon involved here: ACC I, ACC II, light duty vehicle, EV, BEV, PHEV, ZEV, DCFC, and L2 charger.
  2. The marquee component of the ACC II regulation is the ZEV sales requirement—what is this (qualitatively and numerically)?  How big of a jump in 2026 is this for CA (i.e. what’s the increase relative to the current level)?
  3. Besides the sales requirement, there are also additional performance standards—what are these and why are they included?
  4. This is a California regulation but is expected to impact many other U.S. states.  What is the federal legal arrangement/ framework that facilitates this?  What are the benefits of this?  What is the potential risk?
  5. In Figure 1, why does the authors’ “likely compliance scenario” of what they predict will occur (in terms of ZEV sales as a percentage of all sales in CA) differ from the sales requirement in the policy (ZEV baseline)?
  6. What do the authors estimate will be the cost of installing the battery chargers needed to meet this mandate, specifically for California over the time horizon of ACC II and also in terms of the average for each ZEV?

11/10


12. U.S. politics and public attitudes
Slides

Krosnick, Jon A., and Bo MacInnis. 2020. Climate Insights 2020: Policies and Politics. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, pp 1-37 (pages are sparse).  HTML version.
1.    The survey data was collected during the Covid-19 pandemic (May-Aug 2020).  Does that seem to have influenced the responses?
2.    What policies were most/least popular?
3.    How do you explain the discrepancy between the support for GHG-mitigation policy in this report and lack of broad national U.S. policy to reduce GHGs?

We will also read a few pages from Kull and Ramsay on attitudes towards recent policy developments (e.g. Paris Agreement).
Read: pp. 2-5 and 11-15.

Kull, Steven and Clay Ramsay. 2016.  Considering the Cost of Clean: Americans on Energy, Air Quality and Climate. Program for Public Consultation, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, pp. 1-32. Available at: https://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2019-07/Considering%20the%20Cost%20of%20Clean%20-%20050416.pdf.
1.
What percentage of respondents overall approve/favor the Paris Agreement and how does this differ if we look separately at Democrats and Republicans?  How do these levels compare with the same figures for the Clean Power Plan?

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Optional: 

* Krosnick, J. A., & MacInnis, B. 2013. Does the American Public Support Legislation to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions? Daedalus, 142(1), 26-39.

* Popovich, Nadja and Livia Albeck. 2017. How Republicans Think About Climate Change — in Maps.  New York Times, December 14, 2017.

* 2018 Gallup polling

* See  this RFF website listing updates on efforts for "Surveying American Attitudes toward Climate Change and Clean Energy
"  from Krosnick and others (updated to 2015).

* See this website with fantastic U.S. maps decomposed to the state/county/district level for various climate questions from the  Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.



11/15


Guest speaker:
Jordan Ramalingam


Slides


Jordan earned his bachelor's degree from UC Davis in the Environmental Policy Analysis & Planning program in 2016.  He is now a Manager at California Air Resources Board (CARB) in the Alternative Fuels Section of the Industrial Strategies Division. He works with (1) the Low Carbon Fuel Standard group (2016-present) as lead staff member, responsible for informing long-term policy design of the program and aligning policy signals with CARB's broader climate and air quality targets; and (2) Carbon Neutrality Planning and Modeling (2019-present) to chart the path to statewide carbon neutrality by 2045 (e.g. by gathering information from workshops and other multi-agency efforts to inform the path to carbon neutrality for the next statewide Climate Change Scoping Plan).

***Our guest speaker will be onsite in our regular classroom (not remote).


11/17



14. U.S. Climate Policy

Mahajan, Megan, Olivia Ashmoore, Jeffrey Rissman, Robbie Orvis and Anand Gopal. 2022. Updated Inflation Reduction Act Modeling Using the Energy Policy Simulator. Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC, August 23. Available online: https://energyinnovation.org/publication/updated-inflation-reduction-act-modeling-using-the-energy-policy-simulator/.
  1. With respect to U.S. economy-wide GHG emissions, what is the moderate estimate of the additional (due to IRA) decrease in emissions by 2030?  You might express this in percentage terms using 2005 emissions as a reference point.
  2. With respect to U.S. economy-wide GHG emissions reductions from 2005 levels by 2030, how close numerically is the “moderate” estimate to the U.S. nationally determined commitment (NDC) under the (internationally negotiated) Paris Agreement?
  3. Political attacks of proposed environmental protection laws commonly assert that such laws kill jobs and hurt the economy.  What are the estimated outcomes for jobs and the economy?
  4. While “the IRA is the most significant federal climate and clean energy legislation in U.S. history, and its provisions could cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 37 to 43 percent below 2005 levels” by 2030, it also includes fossil fuel extraction leasing provisions expected to increase GHG emissions.  How does the expected increases in GHGs compare with the expected GHG reductions from the IRA under the moderate scenario for bother measures?
  5. While the “IRA’s $369 billion in funding for emissions-reducing climate and clean energy provisions run the gamut from clean energy and electric vehicle (EV) tax credits to large-scale investments in domestic clean technology manufacturing” (p. 1) the vast majority of the emissions reductions are expected to come from one sector.  What sector is this and why is this the case?
  6. The core objective of the IRA is environmental (reduce GHGs and accompanying criteria air pollutants to reduce global climate change damages and domestic air pollution human health impacts).  What other, non-environmental objectives does the IRA pursue?

11/22

15.  International climate policy agreements
Slides

Stavins, Robert N. 2021. The Biden Administration and International Climate Change Policy and Action
Lawfare, January 14, 2021. (About 6 pages)
  1. What are the key points in international climate change negotiations, i.e., what happened in what year at Rio de Janeiro, Kyoto, and Paris?
  2. What were the key flaws of the Kyoto Protocol (KP)?
  3. How is the Paris agreement different from the KP?  What are NDCs?  [See also Calliari, D'Aprile and Davide (2016) below.]
  4. Is it difficult to leave/rejoin the Paris agreement?
  5. If the prospects for “meaningful and ambitious climate legislation will be difficult, if not impossible” at the federal level in the U.S., what are the other policy avenues for making progress on climate?

Calliari, Elisa and D'Aprile, Aurora and Davide, Marinella, Unpacking the Paris Agreement (February 4, 2016). Review of Environment, Energy and Economics (Re3) February, 2016, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2740429.
  1. There is one mitigation objective of the Paris Agreement stated in explicit numeric terms--what is it? 
  2. What is an "NDC"?
  3. With respect to adaptation, are countries required to take any specific measures by a specific deadline?
  4. What compromise was reached between developing and developed countries with respect to developed country liability for loss and damage from climate change?
  5. What is the Global Stocktake and how is it linked with submission of new NDCs?
  6. Are the emissions targets and/or financing commitments legally binding?
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Optional: For an update relative to the Jan 2021 article above see the post "What Happened in Glasgow at COP26?" also by Stavins.

Optional:  The Climate Action Tracker  --  up to date assessment of country commitments and their sufficiency for reaching global goals.


11/24


No class -- Thanksgiving






11/29




Guest speaker:
Dr. Austin Brown
(CV, LinkedIn)

Dr. Austin Brown holds a Ph.D. in Biophysics from Stanford University. Prior to 2017, Dr. Brown spent nine years in Washington, DC, working for the Department of Energy, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and as Assistant Director for Clean Energy and Transportation at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Obama Administration.  In 2017 he came to UC Davis to serve as the Executive Director of the Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the Economy. During his time at UCD, Dr. Brown worked to build connections between the research, policy, and business communities at the local, state, and national levels with a focus on equitable clean energy and sustainable transportation. Since September 2021 he has served as the Senior Director for Transportation Emissions, White House Office of Domestic Climate Policy.

***Since our guest speaker is remote, this class will meet remotely on Zoom.




12/1




16. International climate policy agreements -- Environmental justice

Carlarne, C.P. and Colavecchio, J.D., 2019. Balancing equity and effectiveness: The Paris agreement & the future of international climate change law. New York University Environmental Law Journal, 27, p.107-182.
Read 107-137 and skim 146-156 (to get a sense of individual country approaches to NDCs)
  1. The authors cite the Reverend Martin Luther King Jr.: "the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice" (p. 109).  How does this apply to the context of international climate policy?
  2. Prior to the PA, what was the “preexisting paradigm” for international climate law?  (Note: some of this may come early in the reading while some may come from Section II.)
  3. What country characteristics are correlated with low climate vulnerability?
  4. “[W]hat does “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” (CBDRRC) mean” in the context of international climate agreements?
  5. How do the following terms overlap and differ--justice, equity, and fairness? Which of these have/have not been referred to frequently in international climate agreement texts?  Why is/isn’t each respective term used frequently?


 
Take home final
The final will be
* posted no later than midnight on the last day of regular classes, and
* due on Canvas by our scheduled final time.






Old topics/papers no longer covered:

6. Optimal mitigation policy: Big bang versus the policy ramp
Slides
Video (48 min)
1. Read this 4-page summary of the Stern Review (see the link to the full report to follow any threads of interest).
"Summary of Conclusions" excerpt (pp. vi - ix) from the Stern Review:
Stern, N., Peters, S., Bakhshi, V., Bowen, A., Cameron, C., Catovsky, S., Crane, D., Cruickshank, S., Dietz, S., Edmonson, N., Garbett, S.-L., Hamid, L., Hoffman, G., Ingram, D., Jones, B., Patmore, N., Radcliffe, H., Sathiyarajah, R., Stock, M., Taylor, C., Vernon, T., Wanjie, H., & Zenghelis, D. 2006.  
Stern review: the economics of climate change. London: HM Treasury.
  1. How does the Stern Review express estimates for the costs of climate  change  (i.e. what are the units)?
  2. What is the Stern Review's range of estimates for the costs of climate change?
2. Read the last half of this article from "The Cost of Action" to the end--if you print the article this is about pages 10-20.  We'll cover the first half later if you want to just read the whole thing now.
Krugman, P. 2010. Building a green economy. New York Times,
April 11, 2010, p. MM34.  --> Here's a PDF.
  1. How did the Congressional Budget Office frame the cost to the U.S. of the proposed Waxman-Markey climate bill?   What was this estimated cost?  How does this compare to costs more broadly to the world economy?
  2. What does Krugman argue are the implications of uncertainty (regarding the magnitude of climate change) for the case for action (mitigation)?
  3. What is the difference between the so-called "policy-ramp" approach and "big bang" approach? (p. 15).

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Optional:  
Video update to Stern review (see transcript and  slides):  Stern, N. 2013. "Economic growth, poverty reduction and managing climate change." From IMF and WRI presentation on April 2, 2013. Posted by E&E TV April 4, 2013.  

7. Policy ramp cont'd
Nordhaus, W. 2007. "Critical assumptions in the Stern Review on climate change." Science 317, 201-202.
1.  How does Nordhaus express the stringency of his policy ramp ("DICE baseline") versus the big bang approach of the Stern review?  In these terms, how much more stringent is the Stern recommendation?
2.  What is the economic logic of the policy ramp?


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Optional:  
Nordhaus, W. 2016. DICE-2016R Model in MS Excel.

14.  Fossil fuels
Slides
Covert, T., M. Greenstone, and C.R. Knittel. 2016. Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?  Journal of Economic Perspectives 30(1), 117-138.
  1. What percentage of GHG emissions come from fossil fuels?
  2. Without regulatory intervention there are two market forces that could hypothetically lead to a reduction in fossil fuel use and thus GHG emissions... 
    • A. In this vein, what are the "supply theory" and "demand theory"?
    • B. What do the authors see as the prospects for either of these forces to be sufficient to curb GHG emissions in the near to intermediate term?
  3. What is the case made (i.e. argument and evidence) for the fossil fuel supply curve either shifting inward (to the left, all else equal reducing use) or outward (to the right, all else equal increasing use)?  And similarly, for the fossil fuel demand curve either shifting inward (to the left, all else equal reducing use) or outward (to the right, all else equal increasing use)?
  4. Other than cost, what are three additional key challenges to displacing fossil fuels with solar/wind for electricity generation?
  5. If the SCC is accounted for does this significantly change conclusions regarding their Demand Theory?

Energy Information Administration [EIA] (2021) Annual Energy Outlook 2021 with projections to 2050. February 3, 2021, Washington DC.
     -->Just focus on: pages (as marked on the bottom right of the page)
1-3 and understanding figures 3, 4, 11 and 18.